Well, Well, Well
And just like that, the U.S. stock market is at a new all-time high. Remember just two months ago when people were decrying the end of America and the utter destruction of millions of Americans' retirement accounts? Those were fun times.
Yesterday afternoon, the S&P 500 closed at $6,173, which marks a new 155-year high. The previous all-time high was $6,144, achieved on February 19, 2025.
Now, in a stunning and ironic twist, the same people who were decrying the end of capitalism (and subsequently and irrationally liquidated their investments out of fear) are now claiming it's a terrible time to invest since the market is so high.
You want to know the best time to invest? I'll tell you the secret. Lean in closer. Today. Today is the best time to invest.
"Yeah, Travis, but it doesn't make sense to invest at all-time highs. It's better to wait until it comes back down!"
If someone has a magic crystal ball that will perfectly predict the future, I'd love for them to share their secrets with me. Unfortunately, history hasn't boded well for people who tried to time the market. It's easy to look back with hindsight and declare what's what with uber confidence. Again, unfortunately, I don't see many people with DeLoreans parked in their driveways that allow them to go back in time.
Here's the truth. Yes, the market just reached a new 155-year high. However, it shouldn't scare us as much as people lead us to believe, for one very important reason. We hit new all-time highs all the time! For example, over the last 155 years (since the conclusion of the Civil War), the stock market ended the year at an all-time high 57 different times. That's one out of every 2.7 years. Here's how many times the market ended a year at all-time highs, by decade:
1870s: 2
1880s: 2
1890s: 1
1900s: 7
1910s: 0
1920: 4 (Roaring 20s)
1930s: 0 (Great Depression)
1940s: 0 (World War 2)
1950s: 7 (post-war boom)
1960s: 6
1970s: 1
1980s: 9
1990s: 8
2000s: 0 (tech bubble burse, 9/11, Great Financial Crisis)
2010s: 5
2020s: 5 (so far, including this year)
Imagine having a drink with a couple of buddies on New Year's Eve, 1968. You start discussing the stock market. One of your buddies begins talking about how the market feels too rich for his blood. After all, it hit new all-time highs in 13 of the last 18 years. It's now worth nearly $104!!! It's too high. It just doesn't make sense! We should probably wait for it to come back down.
You know better, though. Yeah, it's true the market hit new all-time highs 13 out of the last 18 years, but you also know the best time to invest is today. So, despite your friend's negative outlook, you invest anyway. Fast forward to today, whatever you invested on NYE 1968 is now worth 59x what you paid for it (plus all the dividends you received in the meantime).
Back to June 2025. Yes, we're at a new all-time high. Yes, the market will likely go down at some point. Yes, terrible things will happen in the meantime. And yes, we'll hit many, many more all-time highs. History has given us a road map to the future. All it requires of us is to be patient and enjoy the bumpy ride.
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