Closer Than You Think

I recently stumbled upon a few surveys that were beyond concerning. Here are the headline numbers from each:

• 69% of American workers believe they could work until retirement age and still not have enough money to retire.

• 68% of Millennials don't believe they will ever be able to retire without receiving a meaningful inheritance.

Neither of these is surprising, but still concerning, nonetheless. Americans, on the whole, are tremendously underprepared for retirement. I feel that way on a family-by-family basis, and the average and median retirement savings numbers also back it up. We are woefully prepared for the next chapter of our lives, which is a deeply concerning trend.

However, I have good news for you today. Strike that, great news!!!!! I have great, amazing, fantastic news for you today. If you've been trying to make progress on the retirement front but feel like you're not getting as far as you had hoped, you're probably closer than you think.

Last week, I met with someone seeking investment advice. In his words, "I've been saving for nearly a decade, and all I have to show for it is $100,000. I'll never get to a million. I don't even feel like it's worth trying anymore."

My response: "Congrats, you're a third of the way there!!! Keep going!"

Him: ..............

Now, it's obvious that $100,000 is not 33% of $1M. Any idiot can tell you that. From a sheer dollar perspective, he's only 10% of the way there. However, investments (if done right) don't work on a linear scale. In the financial world, we call it compounding. When our money is invested, we make money on our money. Then we make money on our money plus the money we previously made. Then we make money on our money plus money on the money on the money. It's a cycle that speeds up over time.

Here, let me show you with an illustration. This is an example where someone invests $500/month and earns an average of 9% per year over the long run. We obviously won’t earn a consistent 9% over time (it will be a bumpy road for sure), but this makes for a useful visual:

As you can see, it takes a little more than 10 years to accumulate the first $100,000. That was the hardest part, and often where people get frustrated and give up (i.e., the studies referenced above). However, because of the power of compounding, the second $100,000 only takes five-ish years (half as long!). The third $100,000, only 3.5 years. All the way up until that last $100,000, which takes just over a year to complete. From a time perspective, you're halfway to your $1M goal by the time you hit $200,000. Crazy!

This is a concept that's hard to wrap our minds around, but is so freeing once we do. I do my best to beat this into the head of anyone who is feeling discouraged by the process. It's so easy to give up along the way if we don't understand just how powerful this compounding thing will eventually become.

Don't be discouraged. Have a sense of urgency, yes, but don't feel defeated. Keep pushing through, and let compounding do the heavy lifting for you.

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Gambling vs. Investing

I recently went on a tirade against sports gambling amongst a group of friends. I firmly believe that we will look back 20 years from now and realize that sports gambling took down an entire generation. It's literally crippling people. Not rare, random people who are far removed from us. I'm talking about our friends, family, co-workers, and neighbors. Behind closed doors, sports gambling is pilaging families of their resources all around us......perhaps even in your home.

Something happened immediately after this recent tirade, though. My friend essentially called me a hypocrite. Why? Not because I gamble.....I won't even put a penny into a slot machine. I'm a hypocrite because, in his words, I "talk so much about investing on my podcast and blog."

Everyone at the table agreed with him, too. Whoa. That's wild to me. I had to catch my breath after that one.

They explained that investing is 100% gambling. The same principles are at play, but I'm just gambling on companies instead of sports teams. In their minds, whenever we invest money into the stock market, we're gambling, and there's a very real chance we'll lose money.....just like when they throw money at the sports books.

What do the numbers say? First, sports betting. Based on available data, 94%-95% of sports bettors lose money. Remember when Uncle Johnny crushed that four-team parlay and did shirtless victory laps around the house? Yeah, that was a short-term win amongst a longer-term loss....he just conveniently failed to volunteer that little tidbit with you. The data shows that almost every single person will lose money over time. It's the rare 1 out of 20 people who can perpetually pull profits from their betting app.

Now, the stock market. In the 155 years of stock market existence (almost back to the Civil War), there has NEVER been a 15-year window when the stock market lost money. Never. In other words, over a span of 15+ years, 100% of investors who invested the right way would have turned a profit. To further add salt to the investing vs. gambling wound, the worst 30-year window in stock market history provided a 4.4x return. Yes, you would have quadrupled your money over the worst 30 years in U.S. history. That doesn't sound like gambling to me!

Is investing like gambling? They couldn't be more different. Gamblers are nearly guaranteed to lose money, while investors are historically guaranteed to make money. If that doesn't paint the picture, I don't know what will.

Seriously, though, if there's gambling happening in your house, I implore you to reconsider. I'm watching families and marriages melt before my eyes over this stuff. I'm witnessing households get further and further behind on their finances, at the mercy of gambling activity. I'm seeing cash get pushed into gambling apps instead of into 401(k) plans and IRAs. It will eventually catch up with people, and by the time that happens, it will be far too late to remedy it.

Investing (the right way!) has proven again and again to be a safe, reliable, and powerful part of every family's long-term journey. Please don't let that opportunity pass you by.

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Embracing the Chaos

"My investments are doing awesome!" exclaimed one of my friends. I was having drinks with an old friend when he brought up the topic of investing. I'm always interested in context when these types of comments are made, so I inquired. "Why do you say that?"

He shared that he had just recently met with his financial advisor. Over the last two calendar years, his investments were up about 12% each year, and he's on track to do that again this year.

I don't have a great poker face, so he could immediately see the look of disgust on my face. "If the market is supposed to get 8%-10% per year, my last two years have been pretty awesome! There's no disputing that."

Here's the truth. In the two years he just reported to me, 2023 and 2024, the U.S. stock market was up 26% and 25%, respectively. With that context in mind, yes, his 12% performances were absolute trash.

But what about 8-10%!?!? Isn't that what we should use to gauge performance? Yes....and no. Let's play a little game. In the last 155 individual years, how many years did the stock market finish in the positive 8%-10% range?

Three times. Three times out of 155 years. 1912, 1916, and 1993. That's it. Those are the only three years in U.S. history that actually finished in the 8%-10% range. With that being said, the market is up an average of 9.2% per year over the past 155 years (and 10.3% per year over the last 100 years).

This is one of the most important concepts we need to understand. It's not about trying to get 8%-10% on any given year. Rather, it's about meeting the market embracing the chaos......which is what eventually brings us to 8%-10%. As an example of this concept, here are a few fun facts about the last 155 years:

• As already mentioned, the stock market has achieved 8%-10% only three times.

• The market has finished +20% or better 49 times, which is roughly once every 3 years for one-and-a-half centuries.

• The market has finished -20% or worse 8 times.

It's a wild ride! If 2025 ended today, the market would have achieved an average annual return of 14.5% over the last decade. However, look how messy it's been:

• 2016: +11.8%

• 2017: +21.5%

• 2018: -4.3%

• 2019: +31.1%

• 2020: +18.1%

• 2021: +28.5%

• 2022: -18.1%

• 2023: +26.0%

• 2024: +24.8%

• 2025: +16.9%

See, wild ride! The only way for us to get our desired long-term results is to experience the full weight of the chaos on the upside, endure the inevitable chaos on the downside, and know that it will average out to something beautiful.

However you handle your investments, whether on your own, through your work's retirement plans, or via a financial advisor, don't measure your short-term returns against some arbitrary target. Instead, we should endeavor to meet the market and embrace the chaos, for better or worse. It will rarely look like 8%-10% in the short-term, but if we're willing to embrace the chaos, we'll eventually be rewarded handsomely for our discipline and patience.

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Turns Out Old Isn’t Old

Let's rewind the clock 20 years. It's 2005. Times are good. The economy is booming, and we haven't yet experienced the wrath and destruction of the Great Financial Crisis. I was 24 years old, new in my young career.

One of my friends was about six years older than me.....right around 30. Over drinks, we shared a conversation that I've periodically thought about for two decades. It's a conversation that might hit close to home for you. My friend was known to be impulsive, the proverbial life of the party. During one of our conversations, the topic of money came up. While I wasn't making the wisest of financial choices back then, I did understand one important concept: Investing for the future is imperative.

My friend had a different philosophy of life. In his words, we might die tomorrow, so we might as well have as much fun as we can now. And even if we don't die tomorrow, why wait until we're 50 or 60 to have fun, since we'll be too old to enjoy ourselves by then anyway.

Nearly twenty years have passed since that conversation. Guess where my friend is today. He's 50.....and healthier than ever. In his words, he's at the peak of his life. Just one problem: His 30-year-old self took that perspective seriously and thoroughly enjoyed life, leaving nothing for "old" him. Today, he sits at 50 and has no idea what his future will hold. Life is full of doubt, uncertainty, and stress. Will he have to work involuntarily forever? How will the bills be paid? There's not enough money to save for the future and actually enjoy life today.

I feel so terrible for him and his situation. He's between a rock and a hard place, and unfortunately, there's no redo button. That's the problem of having the attitude he had when he was younger. We ALWAYS become future us. Current me will someday become future me. A time will come when I am forced to live in the reality established by younger me. On one hand, that's the scariest concept in the world. On the other hand, it's so empowering.

Every day we wake up, we have the power to help future us. Each positive step we take is a blessing for future us, while each mistake is a curse for future us.

Yes, you're younger today than you will be someday. At the same time, however, 20 years from now you'll still be younger than you will be someday. Current you is always the youngest version of you. Please help yourself help yourself. Your future self will thank you.

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Hyperbole For the Masses

Plunged. Tumbled. Sank. Crashed. Tanked. The media has had no lack of hyperbolic words to describe what happened to the stock market on Friday. People are losing their minds! If you aren't aware, the U.S. stock market fell by approximately 2.7% on Friday. Based on the dozens of texts I've received since then, many people are anxious.

"Market Falls Off a Cliff," reads one international news outlet headline. If you're casually scrolling the web, what do you do with a headline like that? I'll tell you what many people do. They start to get scared. Is it warranted? Should people be worried? Is now a great time to be fearful?

Well, it depends on what your goals are. If your goal is to never see your account balance fall below where it is today, then yes, you should be terrified. However, if your goal is to end up in a good spot years or decades from now, no, you shouldn't be worried in the least.

One of my friends specifically asked about how badly the stock market got crushed on Friday. After all, the hyperbole used to describe those events makes it sound like doomsday. Please allow me to put it into perspective. After the market fell by 2.7% on Friday, we are down to a level that had never before been achieved since the Civil War.....until 9/11/2025. That's right. The price of the stock market today is at level that was an all-time high less than a month ago. Here, maybe this chart will serve as a clear visual:

This chart illustrates what the last five years have looked like for the U.S. stock market. That tiny little blip in the upper right-hand corner of the chart is Friday's "plunge." It's about as scary as a Halloween-themed show made for toddlers.

Will the stock market experience a far more significant decline? Probably. When will it happen? No clue. None of that is important, though. What's important is that we continue to practice the "do nothing" strategy and simply live our meaningful lives. Let the market be the market because the market is always the market. P.S., that's a good thing. We have the greatest stock market that has ever existed, and 155 years of proven data to back it up. Therefore, I love letting the market be the market because the market is always the market.

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The Benefit of Hindsight

I received several angry messages from buddies regarding my recent post about why we shouldn't time the stock market. These buddies, of course, are "investing experts." They are mirror images of the man I covered in the previous post. They believe what he believes and acts as he acts. Here's what one of them said (excluding the expletives):

"You can't invest today in good faith. The &%$#@!& market is far too expensive. Every dollar you put in is begging to be lost. Stop giving your readers &@$#% advice!"

I present to you Exhibit A:

This is a graph of the U.S. stock market (S&P 500) since 1/1/2000. As 2000 unfolded (far left side of the graph), due to the tech bubble, the stock market hit unprecedented levels of "too expensive." The market was clearly overvalued, and experts warned that it was too high to justifiably invest.

Do you see where this is going? Yeah, while the market felt a bit rich in 2000, with the benefit of hindsight, it now looks cheap. In fact, today, the stock market is 4.4x higher than it was at the peak of "too expensive" in August 2000.

It's not all roses and sunshine, though. What you'll see if you look close enough at this graph are the following rough patches:

• 46% loss after all-time high in August 2000

• 54% loss after all-time high in October 2007 (second-worst crash in history)

• 32% loss after all-time high in January 2020

• 25% loss after all-time high in December 2021

• 20% loss after all-time high in January 2025

And today, after the stock market hit a new all-time high in September 2025, we're back in the same position. Will we get our butts kicked again? Absolutely! However, with the benefit of hindsight, today's all-time high will eventually look cheap.

I say it over and over again, but please don't let the naysayers (or "experts") scare you into fear-based decisions. History always has a way of taking care of itself.....eventually. The benefit of hindsight will soon prove your patience right.

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Someone Should Check On Him

I had a doomed conversation in early April. One of my friends, a self-described investing expert (but with a bunch of suffixes after his name to back up his mouth), made a dire proclamation to me. In his words, "the stock market meltdown has begun.....it's time to go all cash." Translation: He, in all his brilliance, was predicting an immediate, all-out stock market crash and planned to sell all his investments to avoid losing money. Further, with his masterful wisdom, he was telling everyone around him (including me) to do the same.

Here's some added context. When he shared his "expertise" with me, it was in the midst of the great tariff scare of 2025. The stock market had experienced a few bad weeks, and people were anxious. The overall stock market was down nearly 20% from the all-time high it experienced just six weeks prior. That's when he sold.

My buddy had personally lost $200,000 (around 17%) and was now sitting on about $1,000,000 of cash in his portfolio. According to him, he was going to let the market continue to crash, and he would swoop back in to "buy the dip."

Five months have passed since he made this decision. Wanna know where we stand today? The market is up approximately 40% since he sold all his investments. 40%!!! The market has hit 24 new all-time highs since his bold proclamation, including a new one yesterday afternoon.

Had he simply done what actual wise investors do (nothing!), his $1M portfolio would be up by $400,000. In his desire to be smarter than everyone else and try to play games with the market, he lost out on $400,000 (!!!!) of upside. All he had to do was nothing. Literally, nothing. When I explained to him that his strategy has a terrible historical track record, he laughed. Today, he's $400,000 poorer because of it.

Someone should check on him. Well, I actually did yesterday. Let's just say "frustrated" would be a gross understatement to describe his state of being. He was so sure he was going to outsmart the market this time. He would have bet his life savings on it. Strike that, he did bet his life savings on it.....and lost.

He's at a loss on how to move forward. Does he now wait until the market falls? Does he just lick his wounds and get the money back working for him? Both options feel like a loss to him. These are the psychological implications of trying to play these sorts of games.

Here's what I told him: "What's done is done. You can't go back and get a redo. However, you can promise yourself you'll never do this again. Call it an expensive lesson. Humble yourself. Don't try to be smarter than everyone else. Invest your money and leave it invested. The market will take care of the rest....eventually."

We'll see where he goes from here, but it's a cautionary tale for all of us. The best investors in the world are the ones who know they aren't smarter than the market. Patience beats brains every day of the week. I have 155 years of history to prove it. Today is a great day to do nothing, and tomorrow is a great day to do nothing, too.

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Well, Well, Well Again

In my June 28th post, I discussed how the U.S. stock market had just hit a new 155-year all-time high. More importantly, I reiterated that an all-time high isn't something to be scared of. In the post, I detailed how frequently our stock market hits new all-time highs, and why that's just a regular feature of long-term investing.

Without fail, I received nearly a dozen messages pushing back against my message. One person told me I'm "stupid." Another told me I'm "naive." A third told me I'm "uneducated." That was a fun day to open my inbox!

Lots of people (who claim to be wise investors) get on their soapboxes and tout the strategy of "buy the dip." In other words, try to time the market by investing after it crashes. That would be an amazing strategy if we had a magic 8-ball or DeLorean. The problem with timing the market is that we must be right twice: first, when to buy, and second, when to sell. Besides, that's a stressful and time-consuming endeavor. In the entire investment world, there are only a few dozen people who can be successful at this for an extended period of time, and they aren't your brother's co-worker's neighbor. It's not your financial advisor, either!

Since I wrote that post on June 28th, the U.S. stock market has achieved another 12 all-time highs: One in June, 10 in July, and one in August (yesterday!).

Once in a while, my friend Brett will respond to a post with a simple question: "Where's the meaning in this post?" While today's post isn't jam-packed with meaning, I do have one very strong, meaning-filled encouragement. Please don't spend your time, energy, stress, or anxiety worrying about your investments. Simply invest in the U.S. stock market via low-cost index funds, be patient, and stop thinking about it. You have so many more important things to think about in your life than the fate of your investments. Their fate is awesome......long-term. Instead, invest your time and energy in your family, your work, your relationships, and your ministry. The ROI of those things is far greater than money will ever provide!

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Blood Money

I've received countless thoughtful responses to yesterday's post about my friend who turned down his dream job because it would require him to effectively take a $850/month pay cut. His dream, calling, and aspirations were sitting right in front of him, and all he had to do was say "yes." He said "no." Money overcame meaning. He knows that, and he also recognizes that the societal pressures all around him were the driving force for his ultimate decision.

One reader took exception to my analysis and aggressively came to the defense of my friend. "You're a finance guy, Travis. You know the math. If your friend invests $850 each month for the next 25 years, that's $1,000,000. That's how he gets to create generational wealth. He'd be stupid to throw away that opportunity."

The math is correct. $850 contributed per month, at a 9% annual return, for 25 years (300 months), would result in about $950,000. He's absolutely right.

You know what I call that? Blood money. If my friend throws away his dreams, calling, and aspirations for the next 25 years (from age 42 to 67) and instead hoards all of this excess money, he'll end up $1M richer. Last time I checked, he only gets one life. One chance. One opportunity. One shot at this. And he's going to exchange the 25 most productive years of his life for a million dollars?!?!? Blood money!

If you know me (whether personally or through the blog/podcast), you know that I'm a big believer in investing. I teach it, advocate for it, encourage it, and help people execute it. I'm a staunch believer in the power of long-term investing. However, NEVER at the expense of meaning and impact. If our investing prevents us from living a meaningful life or it's at the expense of making an impact on others, it defeats the purpose.

Money for money's sake is like losing the game in the first quarter, but not yet knowing you lost. It's the kind of loss that sneaks up on us and blindsides us just as we thought we were about to win.

Sure, my friend could elect to invest $850/month for the next 25 years by turning down his dream. It will result in a million dollars. That's real money. Alternatively, he could live with meaning and follow his dream, calling, and aspirations, and undoubtedly live an amazing life. Not 25 years from now when he has a ton of money, but today. Today. Tomorrow. Next week. Next month. Next year. Always.

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What’s Under the Hood?

After my recent post titled "Well, Well, Well," I received a sharp but appropriate question from a handful of readers. Here's how one reader phrased it: "If the stock market is at an all-time high, shouldn't my retirement account also be at an all-time high?"

Yes, yes it should. As of this moment, the U.S. stock market is still hovering around its new all-time high. Even if you haven't contributed any money in the last few years, your investment portfolio should be at an all-time high. However, if you've been consistently investing through the recent market turmoil, you should be crushing your previous all-time high,without question.

If you're one of the many people who are still not at all-time highs, there are a few reasons this could be (none of them good):

• You're paying ridiculous, unnecessary, and possibly invisible fees.

• You're implementing a sub-par strategy. I say "sub-par" through the lens that no strategy exists that will reliably match the returns of the overall stock market over the long run.

• You're investing in the wrong funds. There's a LOT of trash out there, and most people (probably 90%) are invested in trash. Nearly every investing platform has a great S&P 500 index or total U.S. stock market index. These are broad, beautiful, and simple options.

• You (or someone managing your money) is trying to time or game the market. This is a losing strategy.....period.

If you're interested in one additional piece of information to compare your portfolio to, here you go. Here is the annual return of the entire U.S. stock market over varying periods of time, as of 6/30/2025:

To put this into context, the annual return over 15 years was 14.43%. That means, over a 15-year period of time, the market increased an average of 14.43% every year. A $1,000 investment would have turned into $7,500. That’s huge! And it was right there for each one of us.

Those are some pretty ridiculous numbers. I encourage you to open your most recent statement and compare your portfolio's performance with these. If they are close, excellent! If they deviate from what you see here, please know a few things:

• You are leaving tens of thousands, hundreds of thousands, or millions of dollars on the table.

• You deserve better.

• Having better is as easy as a few clicks on a screen. In today's financial system, nearly all investment platforms (including your company's 401(k)/403(b) offer at least one solid broad index option.

In my opinion, this is the simplest and biggest needle-mover most families have at their disposal. Money isn't always an easy topic, but in the case of investing, this is actually the easiest component to get right. Please don't let paralysis prevent you from maximizing your opportunity with the resources you've worked so hard save.

Perhaps it's time to log into that investment account and see what's under the hood.

For those who have asked, I only have one thing under the hood of my portfolio. VTSAX, which is Vanguard’s total U.S. stock market index (3,600 different companies). 100% of my family’s retirement resources are in this, and have have been for many years. Before that, my 401(k) lived in an S&P 500 index fund. As simple as it gets!

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Well, Well, Well

And just like that, the U.S. stock market is at a new all-time high. Remember just two months ago when people were decrying the end of America and the utter destruction of millions of Americans' retirement accounts? Those were fun times.

Yesterday afternoon, the S&P 500 closed at $6,173, which marks a new 155-year high. The previous all-time high was $6,144, achieved on February 19, 2025.

Now, in a stunning and ironic twist, the same people who were decrying the end of capitalism (and subsequently and irrationally liquidated their investments out of fear) are now claiming it's a terrible time to invest since the market is so high.

You want to know the best time to invest? I'll tell you the secret. Lean in closer. Today. Today is the best time to invest.

"Yeah, Travis, but it doesn't make sense to invest at all-time highs. It's better to wait until it comes back down!"

If someone has a magic crystal ball that will perfectly predict the future, I'd love for them to share their secrets with me. Unfortunately, history hasn't boded well for people who tried to time the market. It's easy to look back with hindsight and declare what's what with uber confidence. Again, unfortunately, I don't see many people with DeLoreans parked in their driveways that allow them to go back in time.

Here's the truth. Yes, the market just reached a new 155-year high. However, it shouldn't scare us as much as people lead us to believe, for one very important reason. We hit new all-time highs all the time! For example, over the last 155 years (since the conclusion of the Civil War), the stock market ended the year at an all-time high 57 different times. That's one out of every 2.7 years. Here's how many times the market ended a year at all-time highs, by decade:

• 1870s: 2

• 1880s: 2

• 1890s: 1

• 1900s: 7

• 1910s: 0

• 1920: 4 (Roaring 20s)

• 1930s: 0 (Great Depression)

• 1940s: 0 (World War 2)

• 1950s: 7 (post-war boom)

• 1960s: 6

• 1970s: 1

• 1980s: 9

• 1990s: 8

• 2000s: 0 (tech bubble burse, 9/11, Great Financial Crisis)

• 2010s: 5

• 2020s: 5 (so far, including this year)

Imagine having a drink with a couple of buddies on New Year's Eve, 1968. You start discussing the stock market. One of your buddies begins talking about how the market feels too rich for his blood. After all, it hit new all-time highs in 13 of the last 18 years. It's now worth nearly $104!!! It's too high. It just doesn't make sense! We should probably wait for it to come back down.

You know better, though. Yeah, it's true the market hit new all-time highs 13 out of the last 18 years, but you also know the best time to invest is today. So, despite your friend's negative outlook, you invest anyway. Fast forward to today, whatever you invested on NYE 1968 is now worth 59x what you paid for it (plus all the dividends you received in the meantime).

Back to June 2025. Yes, we're at a new all-time high. Yes, the market will likely go down at some point. Yes, terrible things will happen in the meantime. And yes, we'll hit many, many more all-time highs. History has given us a road map to the future. All it requires of us is to be patient and enjoy the bumpy ride.

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They Shot the Elephant

When I'm sitting face-to-face with most coaching clients, there's an elephant in the room. This person (or persons) desires to retire one day. They'll tell me, "We want to retire in 15 years." They might be 40 years old, meaning their objective is to prepare themselves to retire by age 55.

This desire has many implications. First, it means this couple needs to invest like crazy. They need to intentionally and repeatedly set aside large chunks of money each month as they race the clock to accumulate enough resources to meet their objective.

When they elect to set aside massive resources for retirement (you know, to win the race), this, too, has implications. It means fewer financial resources available to the family month in and month out. That may mean less fun, fewer vacations, less generosity, and a more frugal lifestyle. It might also mean they linger in higher-paying, lower-meaning jobs. After all, what's the point in pursuing work that matters if we're busy racing toward the finish line and stop working as quickly as possible? There's a conscious trade-off between finding meaning in their life now (which they might not) and hurrying toward the retirement finish line.

The financial and career pressures begin to build, all for the sake of meeting these age-based retirement goals. Some people enjoy this process, but most don't. In fact, it can turn a frustrating endeavor into a pressure cooker of stress, weight, and disappointment.

Then, there are meetings where I sit face-to-face with a different kind of client. This is the type of couple who, like me, have zero desire to retire. Both spouses are pursuing work that matters, enjoying the journey, and living with meaning every step of the way.

In a recent meeting with one of these couples, I was writing a bullet list of possible uses for their taxable investment account. As soon as I wrote the word "pre-60 retirement," they asked me to erase it. "We don't want to retire. We like to actually live our lives and have purpose." I love it!

The implications of this mindset shift run deep. Immediately, we were able to pivot our approach and create a weird and counter-cultural way to approach this topic. Every ounce of pressure and urgency melts away, as there's no defined race to run. Instead, we can plan more intentionally and weave all the pieces together in a way that creates a cohesive lifestyle (not just someday down the road, but today). There is no elephant in the room; they shot the elephant!

Instead of allocating massive sums of resources to retirement, they can take a more measured and flexible approach. They can allocate more money for memories, travel, and giving. Their investments, instead of needing to fund an ever-earlier retirement, can now feed more meaningful endeavors. Their career decisions can be centered around meaning, not paychecks. More than anything, there's no weight. They are going to be great. They don't feel burdened or heavy. It changes everything!

I shot the elephant years ago, and I'm so glad my client did, too! When we can untether ourselves from the race toward retirement, it literally changes every single aspect of our lives. So beautiful! Is it something you'd consider? Please think about it, and we'll talk about it again soon.

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While the Sun Is Shining

Here's a little game we play in our financial coaching meetings. For whatever topics we're discussing (whether debt payoff, saving, giving, or investing), we run the numbers and determine, "If you do $x every month for y months, you'll meet your goal by _____ date."

This math is straightforward......and linear. One problem, though. Life isn't straightforward or linear. It's anything but either of those. Today's reality could disappear in a heartbeat, only to be replaced with a drastically different set of circumstances.

This is where it gets murky. Oftentimes, people want to know how little they can do each month to accomplish a goal by a certain date. In other words, if everything goes perfectly and life doesn't alter a bit, what is the least sacrificial path to achieve the desired goal? I think this is a recipe for disaster. After all, nothing goes perfectly, and whether we acknowledge it or not, our lives will be altered multiple times in the months and years to come.

Instead of taking this approach, I encourage people to make hay while the sun is shining, as the saying goes. We don't know what tomorrow will bring, so why not maximize the impact of today's reality? If you have extra money to throw at your debt over the next several months, throw it. If you have increased resources to contribute to your investments, harness them. If you're able to make more progress on your savings in the near term, embrace it. We don't know what will happen tomorrow!

A natural question spawns from this idea: "Well, what happens if we get too far ahead of our desired goal?"

This is a fantastic problem to have. It does NOT mean that we get greedy or selfish and turn ourselves into a hoarder. Instead, it gives us freedom and flexibility. If we make hay while the sun is shining (i.e., get more aggressive in the near term), we will inevitably have less pressure on us in the future. In other words, getting quicker momentum in the near term allows us the ability to downshift our intensity in the longer term. This could mean different career decisions, more money for generosity, and less financial pressure. This is a beautiful byproduct of making hay while the sun is shining.

There's no reason to arbitrarily put more pressure on our future selves. That's one reason not to go into debt or saddle ourselves with undo expenses. On the flip side, making hay while the sun is shining is also a tremendous way to combat the inevitable pressure our future selves will face. My clients who embrace this opportunity report significantly higher levels of satisfaction, peace, and freedom. It changes EVERYTHING.

I'll share some real-life examples in a future post (including from my own life), but in the meantime, I encourage you to ask yourself what area of your life you need to make hay while the sun is shining. Instead of doing as little as possible to eventually meet your goal, what can you do today to lighten the load for future you?

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And Just Like That

Do you remember that one time when the stock market was collapsing, everyone's retirement accounts were a dumpster fire, the end of our economy was upon us, and the world was essentially in a death spiral? Yeah, I remember that moment five weeks ago, too.

Just mere weeks ago, I received dozens of calls, texts, and messages from panicked friends, family, and clients, asking if they needed to sell out of all their investments. I gave them the same answer I've given everyone who has asked me this question for the past 20 years: "Don't do anything. It's fine. This is supposed to happen."

From February 19th through April 8th, the U.S. stock market fell by 19%. Some called it a collapse, or a crash, or a tailspin, or a meltdown. But in any event, it decreased by 19%.....people lost roughly 1/5 of their life savings. The media loved it!

Today, just five weeks later, the stock market has erased all the losses experienced since the beginning of the year. That's right, the stock market is UP for the year. As of last night, the U.S. stock market is up 0.6% for 2025. It's also up 11.5% in the previous 12 months.

Don't worry, though! There will be another reason for all of us to freak out next week. We'll find another debacle, dilemma, or disaster to point our finger at, swearing "This time, it's different!"

As for me (and hopefully those I have the privilege of serving through my coaching), we'll just be chillin' in our own little pieces of the world, staying busy living meaningful lives, trying to create impact on others, and losing zero sleep over all this stock market noise. Come join us!

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It’s Pretty Great to Be Young

I was recently blessed to speak at a high school business class. It's a talk I've given about once per semester for the past two years. The topic of the lesson was investing, similar to how I teach it to my clients.

During my talk, I tried to frame investing risk through the lens of the long-term U.S. stock market history. I've written about this topic several times, but today, I'm going to share an idea that could (er, should) re-shape our perspective of risk...and the power of compounding for young people.

We have solid stock market data going back to 1870, just five years after the Civil War ended. That's 154 years of history! Through year-end 2024, those 154 years produced an annual return of nearly 9.2%. Yes, it's a mess. Yes, it's volatile. Yes, it's crashed.....many times. But through all that, 9.2% annual returns for 154 years (and 10.4% for the last 100 years!). For the sake of simplicity, let's just call it 9%.

My audience this week was a collection of high school kids in the 16-18 year-old range. For the sake of this little thought experiment, let's say they averaged 17 years old. If a 17-year-old simply invested $1,000 into the U.S. stock market today and planned to patiently keep it invested until age 65, what would that look like? At a 9% annual return, that single $1,000 contribution would eventually reach approximately $62,000! Think about that! If you're 17 years old and make a decision to invest one time, that decision would yield a 62x outcome by age 65.

"Yeah, Travis, but what if something bad happens!?!?"

Something bad WILL happen. In fact, during a 48-year stretch between 17 and 65, many bad things will happen. We will experience many recessions, stock market crashes, and other unknown calamities.

"Yeah, Travis, but what's the worst that could happen?"

I'm glad this imaginary voice in my head asked that question! Here's a fun fact. During our 154 years of history dating back to the Civil War, the WORST 48-year stretch in U.S. stock market history provided an annual return of 5.64%. That was the 48 years ending in 1920, a period in which cars hadn’t even yet been invented. Had someone invested $1,000 at age 17 and experienced the WORST 48 years in history, their initial investment would be worth approximately $14,000 at age 65. To put it another way, historically speaking, the WORST you could do by investing $1,000 into the U.S. stock market at age 17 and letting it sit until age 65 is yielding a 14x outcome.

How risky does that feel? The worst historical outcome for a 48-year investment term is making 14x your money. "Risky" isn't a word I'd use to describe that. For me, there are three big takeaways today:

1. Time is our friend

2. History is on our side

3. It's pretty great to be young

Please forward this to a young adult in your life. They need to hear it.

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The Wise Words of Mike Tyson

Due to the combination of many factors, including mainstream media and social media, Americans are having a collective meltdown about the stock market. We're acting like we've never been here before, and panic is setting in unlike anything I've seen since 2008. Even the people who nodded their heads in agreement with my advice just two months ago are capitulating to fear-based self-destructive decisions.

It reminds me of Mike Tyson's infamous quote: "Everyone has a plan until they get punched in the face."

Considering the U.S. stock market is down 17.4% since February 19th, let's call this the punch in the face Mike Tyson was referring to!

People are scared, angry, confused, and anxious. As such, please allow me to give you one other data point. Even after the recent 17.4% gut punch, we're still up 104% over the past five years. You heard that right, we're still more than twice as high as we were five years ago.

We haven't seen the stock market this low since, well, May 2nd, 2024. Yes, we're freaking out about the stock market going down to a point where it was just 11 months ago when it had recently hit an all-time 153-year high.

Why is nobody talking about how the stock market fell more than this in 2022? And why is nobody talking about how the stock market fell much more than this (and much quicker) in 2020? And why does nobody talk about how this has happened 21 other times before that, all with the same amazing outcome? It's almost like someone wants us to be scared this time. It's almost like there are motives for people to freak out right now.

Don't buy the hype. Don't let this stuff spin you up. Don't lose sleep. Don't panic. Don't make rash decisions. Don't sell your investments. Don't alter your behavior. Don't berate your neighbors. Don't get on your soapbox. Don't light a stick of dynamite and throw it into your relationships. It's not worth it!

Just live a meaningful life.....period. The rest will take care of itself.

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"It's Different This Time"

I recently met with a concerned friend. On the heels of the recent stock market volatility, he's convinced the best course of action is to sell his investment portfolio and save himself from imminent doom. I explained how this is the nature of the stock market, and how patient people will be rewarded. His response: "This time it's different."

This is where he began to explain all the reasons why my stock market knowledge and fancy data are garbage. Because of x, y, and z, we're doomed, and as such, people should sell out and find alternative investments (such as gold, bonds, cash, crypto, etc.).

In the last 150 years, the stock market has fallen by at least 20% on 23 different occasions. That's once every 6.5 years. Not only has the market recovered each time, but it's recovered to new all-time highs the world has never seen. Every crash has been followed by unprecedented prosperity. 23 out of 23. Do you know what else happened in each one of these 23 stock market collapses? There was a large group of people who said, "It's different this time."

We perpetually think we're living in never-seen-before dark times. Given our biases, we think it couldn't possibly get worse than our current situation. And therefore, "it's different this time."

"It's different this time," said the people in the aftermath of the Civil War, when the railroad system failed, when the industrial revolution caused a massive labor shift, when World War I froze international trade, when we experienced the Great Depression, when the world spiraled into World War II, when the oil crisis hit, when our president was assassinated, when we endured a handful more wars, when the tech bubble burst, when 9/11 shook our nation to its core, when we experienced the worst housing crisis in U.S. history, and when the world shut down due to a sudden global pandemic.

Every single time something terrible happens, our gut reaction is to believe it's different this time. Translation: It doesn't matter that history says patient people will be rewarded.....it's time to react! Fear is a destructive bedfellow.

23 times our stock market has fallen by at least 20%. 23 times it subsequently rose to unprecedented levels. 23 out of 23 times, patience won. 23 out of 23 times, rash decisions got punished.

Could it be different this time? I suppose. But history tells us we've been here before. History tells us the best is yet to come.

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(Unknowingly) Walking Into the Abyss

"How do people afford houses in this crazy market? Do this many people really make that much money?" This is a question I received from a friend last night, courtesy of her mom, Leslie. Thanks, Leslie, for this fantastic topic!

In short, people can't afford them, and no, they don't make that much money. Some can, and some do, but not most. In my work with hundreds of families and watching the data closely, a few other factors are at play.

First, I'll start with what a healthy home ownership situation looks like. Ideally, a family's house payment would cost less than 25% of their take-home income. When that happens, there's enough margin to pay for needs, enjoy some wants, give, save, and invest for the future. There's a balance in the force.

However, with the combination of higher interest rates and increased prices, today's housing market has posed a different dynamic for families. Instead of house payments absorbing 25% of take-home incomes, people are commonly buying houses with corresponding payments at 40%-60% of their take-home income.

When this happens, something has to give. Families aren't going to stop eating food. And they aren't going to completely stop buying wants. Typically, giving is the first thing to go. Sorry, gotta take care of me first! Next, retirement investing gets kicked down the road. After all, retirement isn't for a looooong time....it will have to wait. Then finally, saving gets pulled back. We'll address those future needs when the time comes.

This approach works.....for a while. Eventually, though, other things pop up. The car has issues. The kid breaks an arm. The A/C blows up. The dog eats a screwdriver. But there's not much margin in the budget and little-to-no savings for these types of situations. Out comes the credit card. Then it happens again a few months later. Then again in six months. Every so often, the credit card absorbs the extra costs. Then it's time to buy a new vehicle and there's no money saved. A new car payment!

But people can't just perpetually use debt to keep the train on the tracks, right? Well, yes and no. Eventually, the credit cards feel too heavy. That's when a little psychological hack comes into play. We'll get a HELOC on our house to "pay off the debt." The credit card debt has been shifted to the HELOC, which allows us to start using the cards again. And the cycle slowly repeats for decades.

There's no such thing as a free lunch, though. This is where it gets scary. Without knowing it, people are walking into the financial abyss. Baby Boomers and the Silent Generation grew up in an era with retirement pensions. Most knew a reliable retirement income would await them at a certain point in life. This system has drastically shifted, beginning with Gen X. Traditional pensions are much rarer, and most of us are now responsible for funding our own retirement.

As such, millions of Americans are walking into the abyss as we speak. They are busy living their lives, enjoying their lifestyles, and slowly building debt while not building retirement investments, not knowing the future looks very murky. They've already lost, but won't realize it until it's too late.

If I'm honest, these are the saddest situations to be invited into. There's nothing harder to watch than a couple realizing they have unknowingly walked into the abyss all these years, only to just now see the consequences of their unintended reality.

Does this resonate with you? If so, perhaps it's time to shift gears.....fast! Give a gift to your future self; you don't have to walk into the abyss.

To be continued....

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Starting Is the Hardest Part

I was recently sitting with a young client. Mid-20s, new-ish in his career, trying to figure out his place in life. Everything is new, exciting, and a bit nerve-wracking (though he probably won't admit that last part). To his credit, he's approaching his money head-on. He recognizes the responsibility....and the opportunity. His future self will absolutely thank his younger self, and I'm grateful to play a small role in that story.

However, we hit a roadblock. When it was time to dive into investing, he felt defeated. It's not that he didn't want to invest, but rather he didn't think he was ready. "I don't have enough left in my budget to invest, so that will have to wait."

"That's ok, we'll start with $25 per month."

He laughed. I wasn't joking.

"$25 isn't enough to make a difference," he quipped. While that's technically true, I wasn't encouraging $25/month because I thought it would move the needle. No, I did it because starting is the hardest part.

From a behavioral science perspective, there's massive power in starting something. After all, starting is hard. Investing requires us to set up an account, create a login, connect to a bank, physically move money from one institution to another, and invest said cash into an index or mutual fund. That's a lot of hurdles! However, once those hurdles have been cleared, it's simple!

Once he makes the first investment, and then takes one more step to automate future investments, it becomes one of the easiest things in his life. Even better, the act of creating and automating his investment account, even with only $25/month, he becomes the type of person who invests. That action integrates with his life, his rhythm, his habits. Like paying his rent, brushing his teeth, and taking out the trash. It's just what we do.

As I explained, starting a $25/month investing rhythm is the hardest part. After that, it's easy to increase it. Increasing it takes two minutes. Maybe he'll increase it to $100/month. Or maybe $500/month. Maybe it will get to $1,000/month. Whatever the right number is, it only happened because he did the hard part of setting up that initial $25/month. So, no, $25/month won't in and of itself move the financial needle. But that $25/month start is what opened the doors for everything that will soon come.

Starting is the hardest part. Whether it's investing, giving, or saving, just start. Even $25. Heck, even $5. Just start. Get the ball rolling. Become the type of person who does that action. Let it seep into you. Once that happens, anything is possible!

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But What Inputs?

I appreciate the flood of comments I've received from yesterday's post. If you missed it, I discussed the importance of focusing more on the inputs than the outputs. Instead of dwelling on the outcome, we should fix our attention to our decisions and contributions that go into xyz endeavors. I used the example of Northern Vessel's recent record-setting day. While the numbers from that day (outputs) were amazing, we chose to reflect on the inputs that ultimately made it happen.

Several of you asked for a real-life example of inputs vs. outputs that would apply to the vast majority of readers. Your wish is my command! I have a great example to share, and I hope it lands well.

As you probably know, I love investing. It's been a passion of mine since I was 16 years old. To summarize, I'm a big believer in investing in the entirety of the U.S. stock market, paying as few fees as possible, and remaining extremely patient. Doing so has a 154-year track record of success (9.2% per year over 154 years and 10.4% per year for the last 100 years).

All that said, it's a mess! By "9.2% per year," that doesn't mean the market returns 9.2% each and every year. That's the long-term compounded average. The road to get there is rough! To illustrate that, guess how many years in the history of the stock market have provided a return in the 8%-10% range...........

............three years. Only three times out of 154 years (1912, 1916, and 1993) have resulted somewhere in the 8%-10% range—the rest fall on either side of that. The market has done as well as +53% (1933) and as bad as -40% (1931). Over a five-year span, the market has done as well as +23% per year and as bad as -11.5% per year. Again, it's a mess!

As such, we would do ourselves a tremendous disservice if all we did was focus on the outputs. If we judged ourselves on how our investment portfolio played out in any given year, it was be an emotional rollercoaster. One year, you'd feel like a genius, and the next a total failure. That's the consequence of focusing too much on the outputs.

Instead, we should focus on the inputs. Here are some examples:

• Am I investing in the right type of funds? I'm a huge fan of the S&P 500 or total U.S. stock market indexes.

• Am I investing with as few fees as possible? Most of my clients pay 0.04% or less (vs. most people paying 1.5%-2.0%).

• Am I consistently contributing? It doesn't matter what the stock market does if you're not contributing.

• Am I being patient? Selling or making knee-jerk adjustments is destructive.

If you have the right answer for each of the questions above, it doesn't actually matter what your portfolio does this year or any other year. You're focusing on the inputs, not the outputs. When we do that, the outputs will take care of themselves.....eventually.

You won't beat yourself up. You won't lose sleep. You won't obsess about volatility. You'll just live your meaningful life.

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