Here’s My Prediction

"What's the stock market gonna do this year?"

One of my friends asked me to look into my crystal ball and let him know what he can expect from his stock market investments in 2026. Here is my prediction: Somewhere between -40% and +40%.

He rolled his eyes at me, pointing out that that doesn't sound like an expert answer. Great observation, as any "expert" who claims to know what to expect is a fool, not an expert.

The market was supposed to get crushed in 2020 after COVID reared its head: it ended the year +18%.

The market was supposed to have a bad year in 2021 on the heels of an inflated 2020: It ended the year +28%.

The market performed as expected in 2022: it ended the year -18%.

The market was supposed to have a tough year in 2023: it ended the year +26%.

The market was supposed to have an even tougher year in 2024: it ended the year +25%.

The market was supposed to be devastated in 2025 (which seemed to be evidenced by the early 20% tariff-driven "collapse"): it ended the year +18%.

In theory, the market will get crushed in 2026. In practice? I guess somewhere between -40% and +40%. More importantly, nothing that happens during the year, good or bad, will influence my investing decisions or perspective. This year doesn't matter. Next year doesn't matter. All that matters is the big picture....decades.

Therefore, sit back, grab some popcorn, and enjoy the roller coaster ride. Oh yeah, and embrace your meaningful life along the way. Life is too short to worry and lose sleep over something we can't control.

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